The record
Graded games only. One record per sport; nothing is blended across sports.
NCAAF
The record271 games graded
132–127 (12 pushes) · 51% on 259 games model's side of the close
Winner picked — model219–52 (81%)
Winner picked — closing line220–51 (81%)
Games271
Model's side of the close132–127 (12 pushes) · 51% on 259 games
NFL
The record32 games graded
13–16 (3 pushes) · 45% on 29 games model's side of the line
Winner picked — our number21–10 (68%)
Winner picked — the line19–13 (59%)
Games32
Model's side of the line13–16 (3 pushes) · 45% on 29 games
UFC
The record61 fights graded
38/61 (62%) winner accuracy
Winner accuracy38/61 (62%)
Exact (fighter + method)19/61 (31%)
Ladder hit rate43/61 (70%)
a hit: the actual fighter + method is one of the three ranked outcomes
NCAAF
0 of 2 games have a gap over 3 points.
#21 UCLA @ #13 Oregon
Sat 10/10, 3:30 PM ET
Market · spread
Oregon −11.5Model · spread
MembersGap · points
1.7Implied analysis
Members#2 Georgia @ #6 Alabama
Sat 10/10, 7:30 PM ET
Market · spread
Alabama −2.5Model · spread
MembersGap · points
0.3Implied analysis
MembersNFL
3 of 4 games have a gap over 3 points.
Tampa Bay @ Dallas
Thu 10/8, 8:15 PM ET · Thursday night
Market · spread
Dallas −9.5Model · spread
MembersGap · points
6.8Implied analysis
MembersBaltimore @ Atlanta
Sun 10/11, 8:20 PM ET · Sunday night
Market · spread
Atlanta −3Model · spread
MembersGap · points
5.8Implied analysis
MembersBuffalo @ Los Angeles Rams
Mon 10/12, 8:15 PM ET · Monday night
Market · spread
Los Angeles Rams −3Model · spread
MembersGap · points
1.0Implied analysis
MembersDetroit @ Arizona
Sun 10/11, 4:25 PM ET
Market · spread
Detroit −5.5Model · spread
MembersGap · points
5.5Implied analysis
MembersUFC
Fight prices are moneylines; the confidence column is the model's win-probability range.
Summer Onley vs Alivia Bierley
Women's Bantamweight
Market · moneyline
Summer Onley -160 · Alivia Bierley +135Model
MembersConfidence
MembersImplied analysis
MembersSal Everett vs Ozzy Martin
Bantamweight
Market · moneyline
Sal Everett -128 · Ozzy Martin +108Model
MembersConfidence
MembersImplied analysis
MembersMateus Soares vs Ryuho Miyaguchi
Bantamweight
Market · moneyline
Mateus Soares -550 · Ryuho Miyaguchi +410Model
MembersConfidence
MembersImplied analysis
MembersAlexander Chavez vs Roque Conceicao
Flyweight
Market · moneyline
Alexander Chavez -110 · Roque Conceicao -109Model
MembersConfidence
MembersImplied analysis
MembersNell Ariano vs Preston Lagrange
Light Heavyweight
Market · moneyline
Nell Ariano -550 · Preston Lagrange +410Model
MembersConfidence
MembersImplied analysis
Members